College football predictions are easy in August. Everybody has a National Champion. Everybody has a Heisman pick. Everybody has a sleeper team they swear the rest of the country is overlooking. But the most interesting part of a new season isn’t necessarily predicting exactly how it will end. It’s figuring out which questions will ultimately determine how the season is decided.
Entering 2026, Ohio State sits atop the preseason AP poll; Oregon isn’t far behind; Indiana is trying to follow an undefeated National Championship season; Texas once again carries enormous expectations; Lane Kiffin has taken over at LSU; and Alabama continues to try to establish what its post-Nick Saban identity will be.
The preseason AP Top 25 reflects just how wide open the national picture could be. Ohio State received 40 first-place votes to begin at No. 1, followed by Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas while defending National Champion Indiana starts at No. 6.
With kickoff almost here, these are the 10 questions I believe will define the 2026 college football season — and what each answer means for the race ahead.
1. Can Ohio State Handle Being Preseason No. 1?
My answer: Yes.
Being ranked No. 1 comes with pressure, but I’m not particularly concerned about Ohio State’s ability to handle it. This is Ohio State. Pressure doesn’t suddenly appear because the Buckeyes have a No. 1 next to their name. Expectations in Columbus begin with national championship-or-bust every season anyway. More importantly, there’s a reason Ohio State is sitting atop the rankings.
The Buckeyes bring back Julian Sayin at quarterback and Jeremiah Smith at wide receiver, giving them two of the most dangerous players in the country. They also have Bo Jackson in the backfield. On paper, I don’t know if there is another offensive core I would rather start a team with.
The bigger concern isn’t the pressure; it’s what the schedule could cost Ohio State.
Ohio State has to travel to No. 5 Texas and still has major Big Ten games against Indiana and Oregon, among others. The Buckeyes can be the best team in college football and still lose a game simply because of what they’re being asked to navigate.
That’s an important distinction, because the schedule, not the spotlight, may decide the result. If Ohio State loses somewhere along the way, I’m not automatically going to say they couldn’t handle being No. 1. Could anyone have handled that schedule perfectly?
2. Is Oregon Actually the Best Team in College Football?
My answer: There’s a legitimate argument, but I still say no.
I understand why someone would pick Oregon. In fact, the argument is much stronger than some Ohio State fans would like to admit.
Oregon begins the season No. 2, its highest preseason AP ranking in program history. The Ducks also return Dante Moore, who completed 71.8% of his passes for 3,565 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025 while leading Oregon to the College Football Playoff semifinal.
That’s not an unproven quarterback we’re projecting greatness onto. Moore has already produced at an elite level. Dan Lanning continues to stack talent; Oregon has become one of the best programs in the sport, and the Ducks have reached the point where expecting them to contend for a national championship isn’t bold anymore.
But if you’re asking me to choose the best roster on paper, I’m still taking Ohio State.
Sayin, Smith and Jackson give Ohio State a slightly higher offensive ceiling, and the Buckeyes have accumulated the roster talent necessary to survive against elite competition.
Luckily, we shouldn’t have to debate this all season, because that game should settle it. Oregon visits Ohio State on November 7. By then, we may finally have our answer.
3. Can Indiana Prove 2025 Wasn’t a One-Year Phenomenon?
My answer: Indiana has already proved it.
I’m actually ready to retire this question. If Indiana had suddenly emerged from nowhere, gone 16-0 and won a national championship, then maybe I would understand wondering whether the Hoosiers could do it again. But that’s not what happened.
Indiana went 11-2 in 2024 during Curt Cignetti’s first season. Then the Hoosiers followed it by going 16-0 in 2025, winning the Big Ten and beating Miami for the national championship.
A fluke can last a Saturday. A fluke could last a season. A fluke doesn’t last two years and end with an undefeated national championship.
Indiana has already proved that the transformation of this program is real.
Now, there is a different question worth asking in 2026: Can Indiana remain an annual national championship contender after replacing key pieces from the title team, or does that turnover change the ceiling? That’s fair. But whether 2025 was legitimate? That debate is over.
4. Is the Big Ten Officially Better Than the SEC?
My answer: At the top, yes. Across the entire conference, not yet, because the answer depends on what you’re judging.
This may be the debate that generates the most disagreement. But I’m going to give the Big Ten its credit. Michigan won the national championship in 2023. Ohio State won it in 2024. Indiana won it in 2025.
That’s three consecutive national championships by three different Big Ten programs. At some point, results have to matter.
If the argument is about which conference has been producing the best teams at the very top of college football lately, the Big Ten has earned the title. But there’s another side to this, and it matters.
The SEC still placed nine teams in the 2026 preseason AP Top 25, compared with eight from the Big Ten. And I still believe the SEC is deeper from top to bottom.
Think about the middle and lower portions of these conferences. SEC programs that aren’t competing for national championships can still present difficult rosters, hostile road environments and uncomfortable Saturdays.
Nobody wants to walk into Lexington, Starkville, Fayetteville, or Auburn assuming they’re in for an easy afternoon. That’s where I still give the SEC the advantage.
So here’s how I would phrase it: The Big Ten is currently the better conference for championships. The SEC is still the deeper football conference, and that difference matters when the schedule gets harder and the margin for error shrinks.
If programs such as Indiana continue elevating themselves and more Big Ten teams bridge the gap between the conference’s elite and everybody else, that distinction might not last much longer.
5. Can Texas Finally Live Up to Elite Expectations?
My answer: I don’t think they quite get over the hump this year.
This isn’t because Texas is overrated. Actually, that’s what makes this prediction difficult. Texas can be very good. But look at what the Longhorns have to play.
Ohio State comes to Austin on September 12. The following game is a trip to Tennessee. Then eventually come Oklahoma, Florida, Ole Miss, road trips to Missouri and LSU, Arkansas, and a regular-season finale at Texas A&M. This stretch could decide whether Texas finally reaches the level everyone expects. That is brutal.
Texas could be one of the 10 best teams in America and still lose multiple games.
The other factor is Arch Manning. The talent has never been the question. Now Texas needs Manning to consistently become the type of quarterback who decides the biggest games rather than simply being capable of doing it. Maybe this is the season everything clicks.
I’m not ready to bet on Texas surviving that schedule and finally reaching the level everyone has expected, which is the whole point for this program. The Longhorns may be good enough. Their path may not be.
6. What Does LSU Look Like Under Lane Kiffin?
My answer: Eventually dangerous. Just not championship-ready yet.
Lane Kiffin at LSU makes way too much sense. Kiffin gets one of college football’s strongest brands, elite recruiting territory, serious resources and one of the best home-field environments in the sport. LSU gets one of the game’s most creative offensive coaches. That’s a potentially scary combination.
Kiffin has already reshaped the roster. Former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt is now at LSU after throwing for more than 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns during his two seasons with the Sun Devils, and LSU’s current roster features a massive collection of transfers around him.
Long term, Kiffin can bring LSU back to national prominence. But the immediate answer? I’m pumping the brakes.
There is a difference between accumulating talented players and building a championship team. New players have to fit together. New systems have to be installed. A new coaching staff has to establish its culture, and that process shapes how quickly LSU can matter.
I’m expecting flashes in 2026. I’m expecting moments when everybody watches LSU’s offense and thinks, “Uh oh.” But 2027 and beyond is when this program could become genuinely terrifying.
7. Can Alabama Return to Being Alabama?
My answer: Not the Alabama people are talking about when they ask this question.
First, Alabama isn’t going anywhere. The Crimson Tide will recruit elite players. They’ll win plenty of football games. They’ll make playoff appearances. They’ll remain relevant nationally.
But when people ask whether Alabama can “be Alabama again,” they’re really asking something different. They’re asking: Can Alabama become Nick Saban’s Alabama again, or is that standard gone for good? I don’t think so. Saban was one of one.
What he built was one of the greatest dynasties in sports history, not simply a standard that the next coach should be expected to reproduce. Kalen DeBoer can be successful without recreating Saban’s dynasty.
Alabama went 11-4 last season, but the Tide enter 2026 ranked No. 13—still highly regarded, but clearly outside the position they occupied almost automatically during the height of the Saban era. Sophomore Keelon Russell has also now won the starting quarterback job, giving Alabama a chance to answer how close it can get to that level.
Russell could become special. Alabama could become a title contender again. But are we heading back to an era where Alabama winning 12 games feels routine, and anything short of a national championship feels like failure? No.
And as long as DeBoer is the head coach, I haven’t seen enough yet to believe that level of dominance is returning.
8. Which Preseason Top-10 Team Will Collapse?
My pick: No. 9 Ole Miss.
“Collapse” needs context. I’m not predicting Ole Miss suddenly becomes a terrible football team. There’s a realistic possibility that a team beginning at No. 9 ends the year closer to 8-4 than the College Football Playoff. And Ole Miss is the Top-10 team I trust least.
Lane Kiffin is gone. Pete Golding now has to prove he can sustain the program over an entire season after helping guide the Rebels through last year’s postseason run. There is still plenty of talent, including Trinidad Chambliss, but the schedule doesn’t allow much time for growing pains.
Ole Miss plays LSU, goes to Florida, travels to Vanderbilt, hosts Missouri, goes to Texas, hosts Auburn and Georgia, then travels to Oklahoma before the Egg Bowl. That is a lot of opportunities for things to go wrong.
Could Ole Miss prove me completely wrong? Absolutely. But if you force me to pick one Top-10 team that we might look back at in November and wonder how it was ever ranked that high, Ole Miss is my answer.
9. Which Unranked Team Will Finish in the Top 10?
My pick: Arizona.
There are more dramatic answers available.Oklahoma State has been fascinating since Eric Morris brought a massive influx of new talent to Stillwater, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker and several players who followed him from North Texas.
But if I’m trying to find the best combination of upside and evidence, I’m going with Arizona.
The Wildcats finished 9-4 last season, return quarterback Noah Fifita and received 32 votes in the preseason AP poll—putting them just outside the Top 25. That’s important because I’m not asking Arizona to go from irrelevant to elite overnight.
The foundation already exists. If the Wildcats turn that 9-4 season into 10 or 11 wins and become a legitimate Big 12 championship contender, a Top-10 finish is absolutely within reach.
Arizona isn’t the flashiest sleeper in America. That might be exactly why I like them.
10. Who Becomes College Football’s Next Superstar?
My pick: Keelon Russell, Alabama quarterback.
This is different from asking who will be the best player in college football in 2026. I’m looking for the player who could emerge this season and become one of the defining faces of the sport for more than one year.
Russell checks every box. He’s a sophomore. He was one of the nation’s elite prospects in the 2025 recruiting class. He was the Gatorade National Player of the Year coming out of Duncanville High School. And now he’s the starting quarterback at Alabama.
Few positions in college sports come with more attention. If Alabama starts winning and Russell plays well, he won’t simply become a good quarterback. He could become the face of the new era of Alabama football.
There are other young players I love here. Tennessee freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has enormous long-term potential, and Oregon receiver Dakorien Moore is playing in an offense that should give him every opportunity to explode. But I’ll take Russell.
The 2026 Season Is Ready to Answer Everything
That’s the beauty of preseason debates. Right now, everything makes sense. Every contender looks loaded. Every new coach has a vision. Every breakout player has limitless potential. Every fan base can build the case for why this year might be different. Then the games begin.
By December, some of these questions will look obvious. Others will look ridiculous. Oregon may prove me wrong and establish itself as the best team in America. Maybe Texas finally breaks through. Maybe Lane Kiffin immediately turns LSU into a national title threat. Maybe Ole Miss takes my prediction and makes me regret ever writing it. That’s college football.
But as the season begins, these are the 10 questions that will shape everything that happens next. And there’s one question I’m most interested in hearing from everyone else:
Which of these predictions am I going to look the most wrong about by the end of the season?
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Josh Mahler
Editor/Founder | Game Day Collective
@realJoshMahler
